The US automotive market is set to stutter this year, with the burgeoning Chinese sector also expected to underperform, according to new analysis.

Morgan Stanley's market expert Steve Girsky told Automotive News that the industry would ride out the difficulties, but stressed that a mixture of economic and industry changes would inhibit sales in 2005.

In the US Mr Girsky predicted sales of light vehicles would fall to 16.6 million, down 300,000 on the 2004 figure.

Significantly, he also drew parallels between the period leading up to 2005 and the behaviour of the market ahead of the automotive recession in 1980.

Citing the influence of pricey raw materials, expensive energy costs and the use of incentives to prop up demand, Mr Girsky underlined the potential for a slowdown in the coming year.

A similar collection of factors are expected to impact on Chinese demand, which he tipped to hit 3 million in 2008.